The cost of buying a bitcoin could exceed $26,000, according to a textbook bullish indicator forming on the time frame chart below.

The pattern, known as a „bull pennant,“ forms when an asset forms a triangle-like structure after forming an upward flagpole. Traders see it as a signal for the continuation of the trend – that is, they believe that the asset will continue in the direction of its previous trend after breaking the triangle structure.

Bitcoin’s one-hour chart

Bitcoin forms a similar bull pennant on its 1-hour chart (1H) and shows the following characteristics:

• Flagpole: before the pennant structure was formed, the BTC/USD price was rising. This led to the formation of a flagpole.
• Price fluctuation: after the formation of a flagpole top, BTC/USD started to consolidate sideways while leaving behind a trail of lower highs and higher lows. This gave it the shape of a triangular structure – the actual pennant.
• Volume: Volume decreased as BTC/USD fluctuated within the pennant.

Traders are now waiting for a break above the pennant to confirm their extended bullish bias. Should such a move occur, the upside target would shift by as much as the height of the flagpole. In the current case, the height is almost $3,200, which means that the breakout move would push BTC/USD at least towards $26,294 – measured from the apex of the pennant.

Bull pennants have a 70 percent success rate, according to a study by Samurai Trading Academy in a Bitcoin Wealth Review. Therefore, there is still a 30 percent chance that the current bullish continuation pattern could end up being invalid.

If this were to happen, the BTC/USD exchange rate would be at risk of correcting lower – again, by as much as the height of the flagpole.

This would take the pair roughly to $20,000, the previous resistance target that now serves as a support level.

Bitcoin’s weekly chart

The long-term time frame charts support the bearish corrective outlook. After posting a series of gains, the bitcoin market is now overheated.

The Relative Strength Indicator on Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows the same with its overbought signals (RSI is above 70).

Simply put, Bitcoin is trading at a higher price than its ideal bid. This typically leads to neutralizing price moves to the downside.

If that happens, the cryptocurrency risks a crash of at least 20-30 percent to bring its RSI back into the normal zone. That would automatically bring the BTC/USD price near/below $20,000.

Bitcoin bounces cheerfully up and down a channel of almost a thousand dollars. But what will be the next direction for bitcoin? Can the magic limit of USD 20 000 be broken, or will there be another crash first?

Bull flag can raise bitcoin
We start the analysis with the four-hour chart. A bull flag can push the bitcoin price upwards in the coming days. This price formation is shown on the chart below.

But how do you recognise a bull flag? The meaning is actually already there in the translation. Okay, you don’t see a bull in it. But with a bit of imagination you can see a flag.

The course starts with a rise, the left arrow on the graph. That is the mast of the flag. Then the price moves down between two parallel trend lines, that is the flag. Does the price break out at the top? Then the price target is the same size as the mast of the flag on the left.

In this case the price can rise to as much as 22,700 dollars (18,725 euros). With this, bitcoin finally breaks the magic limit of 20,000 dollars.

Whales want to sell bitcoin
We remain in the animal kingdom, because according to CEO Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant, an analysis agency, whales want to sell bitcoin. Whales are traders with a large amount of bitcoin. Because they own so many coins, they can exert a lot of influence on the market.
Ki Young Ju’s indicator looks at the moving average of the percentage of whales on regular crypto exchanges. Think of Binance, Coinbase and OKEx. Does this percentage exceed 95%? Then that’s historically wrong. There is a chance that the price will drop.

Kim Young Ju shows an example of the bull run in 2019. When the percentage exceeded 95%, this run was over immediately.
After that, the price moved sideways for months, as you can see on the graph below.

Whether it will turn out that way, is of course the question. According to various analysts, the bull market has really started, and institutional and private investors are on the sidelines waiting for a dip that they can buy up.

Think of parties such as MicroStrategy, this listed company bought another USD 50 million worth of bitcoin on Friday 4 December.

But you can also think of bitcoin investment funds such as Cypherpunk Holdings and Grayscale. The latter fund bought 7,300 bitcoins last week, worth more than 140 million dollars.

What do we expect from bitcoin?
You are now looking at the hourly chart of bitcoin. In fact, since last week the rate has been moving sideways, in a kind of no-man’s-land between USD 18 600 (EUR 15 377) and USD 19 500 (EUR 16 121). There is no real trend, and an outbreak in the coming days may provide more clarity. We describe two scenarios: bullish (positive) and bearish (negative).

Bullish
Is bitcoin breaking out of the bull flag, and is the course continuing its upward trend? Then the exchange rate target of 22,700 dollars (18,725 euros) can be achieved. That is the green line on the chart.

Bearish
But if the whales dump their bitcoins on the stock exchanges en masse, $16,465 (€13,616) comes close. That’s the red line on the chart, and the earlier support when the price fell.

Les fondamentaux de Bitcoin sont nettement plus solides pendant le rallye de 2020 par rapport à 2017 et la CTB pourrait atteindre 50 000 dollars l’année prochaine, ont affirmé les analystes de Bloomberg.

Bitcoin doublera sa performance haussière l’année prochaine et pourrait dépasser 50 000 dollars, selon les analystes de Bloomberg. Ils ont justifié la prévision optimiste des prix par l’adoption croissante et l’intérêt institutionnel, qui ont conduit à une base beaucoup plus „solide“ que le rallye de 2017.

Bitcoin va atteindre une résistance de 50 000 dollars en 2021 ?

La principale cryptocouronne a été en mouvement pendant la majeure partie de l’année 2020. En dehors de la chute brutale des cours lors de la crise de liquidité de la mi-mars, la valeur du bitcoin a augmenté de plus de 160% depuis le début de l’année.

Dans son rapport de décembre de la BTC, les analystes de Bloomberg ont affirmé que la situation ne s’intensifiera qu’en 2021, pour aboutir à une capitalisation boursière de 1 000 milliards de dollars.

„Bitcoin maintiendra sa propension à progresser en prix jusqu’en 2021, selon nous, avec des indicateurs macroéconomiques, techniques et de demande par rapport à l’offre qui soutiennent une résistance à la cible de 50 000 $, ce qui implique une capitalisation boursière d’environ 1 000 milliards de dollars. La barre des 10 000 dollars est passée à un niveau de soutien critique après avoir servi de point de résistance à la cryptographie depuis 2017“.

Il est à noter que le modèle populaire de stock-to-flow a également prédit un prix similaire d’ici la fin de 2021. La prévision la plus modeste du modèle prévoit que la CTB dépassera les 55 000 dollars dans les douze prochains mois.

Cette fois, c’est différent

Le bitcoin ayant atteint son niveau de prix le plus élevé précédemment peint en 2017, la communauté a spéculé et comparé les deux rassemblements. Cependant, la conclusion générale est que „cette fois, c’est différent“.

Les analystes de Bloomberg sont également favorables à ce récit. Ils ont noté que la cryptocouronne a mûri au cours des trois dernières années, ce qui leur fait supposer qu’elle „continuera à s’apprécier, mais à un rythme plus lent“.

Ils ont dépassé la réduction de moitié de 2020, qui a vu les récompenses reçues par les mineurs passer de 1 800 pièces par jour à 900. Et alors que la vitesse de création de nouvelles pièces a diminué, la demande n’a fait qu’augmenter, peut-on lire dans le rapport.

De plus, des investisseurs et des institutions de premier plan sont à l’origine de cette hausse de la demande, a expliqué l’analyste. Ils ont noté que le Grayscale Bitcoin Trust du principal gestionnaire d’actifs numériques Grayscale a enregistré deux records consécutifs.

Des sociétés comme MicroStrategy et Jack Dorsey’s Square ont alloué des millions de dollars en bitcoin. Simultanément, des investisseurs célèbres comme Paul Tudor Jones III ont acheté BTC pour lutter contre la hausse des taux d’inflation, tandis que d’autres comme Stan Druckenmiller ont vanté les mérites de cet actif.

En conséquence, le rapport de Bloomberg a conclu que „les fondations sont plus solides qu’en 2017“.