Als je naar Twitter kijkt, kan het lijken alsof de crypto-markt allesbehalve bearish is.

Vrijdag en zaterdag werden gekenmerkt door extreem sterke rally’s in de prijzen van altcoins, ondanks de consolidatie in de twee belangrijkste cryptokringen.

Veel small caps, medium caps en zelfs large-cap altcoins genoten gisteren van een winst van 10-50 procent, wat resulteerde in een scherpe daling van de Bitcoin-dominantie tot 65 procent vanaf het schrijven van dit artikel. Eerder deze week was de metrische waarde maar liefst 68,5 procent.

Maar deze prijsactie heeft niet alle analisten overtuigd dat Bitcoin, Ethereum en de rest van de markt klaar zijn om hoger te gaan.

Bitcoin zit in een berenmarkt?

Qiao Wang, een crypto-asset-investeerder voorheen van Messari en Tower Research, heeft onlangs gepostuleerd dat Bitcoin Code en de crypto-markt misschien niet in een volwaardige stierenmarkt zitten zoals sommigen hebben gespeculeerd.

Hij deelde op 15 januari dat hij denkt dat we misschien in een „mini-berenmarkt“ zitten vanwege de enorme hoeveelheid speculanten, wat blijkt uit de financieringspercentages van de crypto-futures-markten:

„IMO we zitten in een mini-berenmarkt. Niet genoeg overtuiging om te korten, en denkt zeker dat we over 6-12 maanden een stuk hoger zullen liggen. Wil speculanten weg zien gaan en spotkopers als ongeldig beschouwen. Nog geen idee hoe laag we zullen gaan, maar 20k-25k zou zowel stieren als beren pijn doen.“

Hoge financieringspercentages geven vaak

Voor een korte context is de dekkingsgraad de terugkerende vergoeding die long posities betalen om de prijs van een termijnmarkt op de prijs van een spotmarkt te houden. Hoge financieringspercentages geven vaak aan dat er een groot aantal kopers met een hefboomwerking zijn die speculeren op een actief dat in een kort tijdsbestek waardeert.

Wang voegde eraan toe dat er op dit moment veel zwakke plekken in de markt zijn, waardoor de markt kwetsbaar is voor een potentiële correctie:

„Ik ben nog lang niet klaar met de kwaliteit van DeFi, en ik denk dat we het heel goed zullen doen als mijn BTC-scriptie niet klopt. Hoe dan ook, het systeem is erg kwetsbaar. Niet de tijd om een held te zijn.“

Zijn gevoel is vergelijkbaar met dat van Guggeinheim’s Scott Minerd, die in een recent interview met Bloomberg zei dat Bitcoin waarschijnlijk in het midden van een korte termijn „speculatieve razernij“ of manie zit.

Bitcoin: when will it stop growing? We spoke to a well-known industry player about it

Nathaniel Whittemore discussed Bitcoin’s price trajectory and what might be holding back bullish momentum

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has recently been experiencing a volatile momentum, having more than doubled in the last two months after leaving behind by a Bitcoin Storm review its previous record highs of 2017. Podcaster Nathaniel Whittemore gave his opinion on methods to spot a macro top in this bull run.

The host of The Breakdown podcast told: „There really isn’t a macro top, in the sense that the conditions line up very well with the narrative.“

Whittemore then added:

„If the Democrats were to impose a raft of new fiscal measures and after a few months the velocity of money was still low and inflation limited, then some managers and institutions might decide to turn around, animated by the idea that inflation is not something to worry about: that could damage some of the thesis animating the bull run.“

Following the March crash, Bitcoin recovered faster than the US stock market, which had suffered a similar collapse

After completing its third halving in May, the asset trended sideways for most of the summer, but its overall macro-trend remained bullish. Coinciding with significant capital allocations by some large companies, the price of BTC rose sharply in the final months of 2020.

The US economic situation also plays an important role in this reasoning: the government has been working on a number of economic stimuli, as well as printing significant amounts of money.

Bitcoin’s previous macro tops of bull runs have come as a result of price corrections in an extended bullish outlook. A local top is a shorter-term price spike that occurs before a correction.

Whittemore pointed out:

„A local top could come if people get nervous that [BTC] is too unstable and the market has overheated with new retail investors coming in. […] This hasn’t happened yet, but it looks like we’re in an early stage (see Coinbase coming in at number 25 of the most downloaded free apps from Apple’s App Store).“

Just nine days into the new year, Bitcoin is already up over 40%, according to data from TradingView.com.

Whittemore continued:

„The speed of this growth is pretty dizzying, there’s no denying that. What’s happening is that we have a hugely underpriced asset, with a constrained supply by design, that is finally being revalued. A lot of big buyers have moved in and there’s not enough to go around.“

Bitcoin has a maximum supply of 21 million coins, making it an inherently scarce asset. Be that as it may, BTC is still less than 15 years old: as Mark Cuban previously stated, Bitcoin is worth as much as people are willing to pay for it, as is the case with gold. Some experts, such as financial commentator Peter Schiff, still remain sceptical about Bitcoin and call it a bubble.

L’amministratore delegato della borsa valori digitale Coinbase afferma che Apple sta ostacolando l’adozione di Bitcoin Trader e di altre valute crittografiche.

Il gigante della tecnologia non ha accolto molto bene

Secondo Brian Armstrong, il gigante della tecnologia non ha accolto molto bene le opportunità che coinvolgono le crittocorse.

„Apple è stata molto restrittiva e ostile alla crittovaluta nel corso degli anni. Al momento stanno ancora bloccando alcune funzionalità, tra cui la possibilità di guadagnare denaro con la crittovaluta completando i compiti, e i browser dApp senza restrizioni“.

In una serie di tweet, Armstrong rivela le battaglie di Coinbase contro le restrizioni dell’App Store di Apple.

„Ecco il problema. Apple ci ha detto che non possiamo aggiungere le seguenti funzionalità nelle nostre app per iOS: (1) la possibilità di guadagnare denaro usando la crittovaluta e (2) la possibilità di accedere ad app di finanza decentralizzata (a volte chiamate app DeFi o dApp)“.

Armstrong osserva inoltre che Apple sta facendo fare il salto di qualità allo scambio di crittografia per conformarsi alle linee guida del gigante della tecnologia, il che ha un impatto negativo sull’esperienza dell’utente. Secondo il capo di Coinbase, Apple sta frenando il progresso globale dando priorità all’interesse personale.

„Apple ha anche un conflitto di interessi nell’applicazione di queste restrizioni degli app store. Mentre apparentemente sono progettate per proteggere i clienti, sembra sempre più che proteggano anche Apple dalla concorrenza“.

Armstrong ricorda ad Apple quello che è successo

Armstrong ricorda ad Apple quello che è successo a Microsoft quando ha costretto i proprietari di Windows a utilizzare il browser web dell’azienda.

„Costringere gli utenti a usare l’App Store al posto delle dApp (siti web), o l’IAP (In-app purchase API) al posto dei pagamenti criptati, mi ricorda quello che Microsoft ha fatto all’epoca (costringere gli utenti a usare IE se si era su Windows) che ha portato a tutti i loro problemi di antitrust“.

Alla fine, il dirigente di Coinbase ha dato ad Apple un viaggio nella memoria per illustrare come Bitcoin non sia così diverso dagli inizi del gigante della tecnologia.

„Ricordate quel piccolo gruppo di appassionati e disadattati dell’homebrew computer club che ha visto uno scorcio del futuro nell’Apple II? Le grandi idee a volte iniziano a sembrare giocattoli. È esattamente dove si trovava Bitcoin solo pochi anni fa, e ora è in corso una grande trasformazione nei servizi finanziari“.